Decision Support System for analyze The
wastewater tariff payment In Thailand
Introduction
The Wastewater Management Authority (WMA) is a
state-enterprise under the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment with
the duty to manage wastewater by implementing the “Polluters Pay Policy” to target groups. The collection of the wastewater tariffs is
part of the government policy for public cooperation in environmental
conservation. Since wastewater tariff is
a new concept for the public, the
acceptance level is not widespread. Thus
it is necessary to disseminate the news so that the public is aware of the
potential problems and are willing to cooperate prior to the promulgation and
enforcement of the laws to reduce conflicts in the society. The Markov Analysis and Monte Carlo
Stimulation were used to analyze future consumers behaviors by using present
data as the basis for situational analysis in continuum. Since
the study of the changes in consumer status to willingly pay for wastewater tariff under stable condition has
never been conducted, the data used in the study is obtained from actual works
of the agency.
The Wastewater Management Authority (WMA) in collaboration with Sean Suk Municipality
has implemented the wastewater tariff collection in the year 1999. Very limited cooperation was received
from the public during the initial stage.
Until the year 2002, the public is more aware of
wastewater problems and are willing to pay for wastewater tariff whereby
increasing the customers to 60%. Thus
the data used in the analysis is mainly from the year 2002
by using the data from 522 enterprise holders in Saensuk
Municipality of Chonburi Province to
further compare results with the year 2003.
Related Theory
Markov Analysis is a behavioral analysis of one parameter by
considering the data to predict the behavior of that particular parameter in the
future. The possibility of status change from one state to the other as
time elapses uses this
theory to study the status change of debitors in paying for wastewater
tariff. The Monte Carlo Simulation was
used to simulate the problems of the
actual work system to study the various behaviors of the work system by
constructing the prototype of the system and using the random numbers values which are closely distributed to the
prototype. The random numbers obtained
were thus used in the analysis.
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to study and develop a
prototype for behavioral changes in the target consumers in the wastewater management areas, in which
the sample group is taken from actual data of WMA, where the researcher works. The Markov Analysis was used and the Monte
Carlo simulation tool was used to study the situation to create the Decision
Support System. The emphasis was
especially in the marketing field to analyze behavioral changes in the
consumer status of each group in the future that are willing to pay for the
wastewater tariff. Data from the past to
the present were used as guidelines
which was developed as prototype for ease of use. The study results and developed prototype
obtained variables quite similar to actual problems which can be adapted to be
used in many areas. The obtained results
can be used as guidelines to correctly plan for public relation campaigns to
target group with efficiency in budgeting in order to increase the consumer
base for the system.
Analysis and Problem Solving
From the study of
wastewater tariffs debitor data in the year 1999-2002, only 522
commercial holdings were used to study the changes, since the wastewater tariff collection is a
new concept for the public. The initial
stage of tariff collection faced many
oppositions causing stoppage in some periods thus the data lack
continuation. After intense public
campaign, the tariff collection was carried out in 2001. Thus the data used in the study is
from December 2001 till May 2002
is the first phase, and data from March 2002 till November 2002
was used in the second phase. The debitors status in each month will either
be paid or unpaid. If total sum for a
period of 6 months were categorized according to
consumer group data, each time period will be divided into 6
groups:
Group A refers to the total of consumers who paid for
wastewater tariff 5-6
times within 6 months
Group B refers to the
total of consumers who paid for wastewater tariff 4 times within 6
months
Group C refers to the
total of consumers who paid for wastewater tariff 3 times within 6
months
Group D refers to the
total of consumers who paid for wastewater tariff 2 times within 6
months
Group E refers to the
total of consumers who paid for wastewater tariff 1 time within 6
months
Group F refers to the
total of consumers who paid for wastewater tariff 0 time within 6
months
As time elapse during the second phase, the number of
consumers in each group will change, which can be calculated as matrix having
the probability of status change with size of 6x6. The
Markov Analysis will result in behavioral changes of consumers in each group
that will change with time period. By taking the possibility in the matrix
table constructed as random number 1000
times and regroup, the chances that the consumers in each group will change in
the next month can be shown according to Monte Carlo Simulation.
Analysis is divided into the following steps:
1. Review
the data of 522 commercial holders divided into 6
groups:
2. Check
the status of wastewater tariff payment within 6
months.
The first phase is
from December 2001 till May 2002.
The second phase is from June 2003
till May 2002
3. Construct
the possible matrices of status change with size 6x6
according to the changes in the number within the grouping as time elapses. For example, group 1
previously had 89 entities; after the first phase, group 1
now totals 78 entities or the probability of 0.787. The probability is used to construct
the table to calculate the random number
1000 cycles to obtain the chances of group 1
in the 24th month at 34.75%.
4. Conclude
the calculated result of customer target as BCG Matrix.
5. Summarize
the result and present the prototype in the Homepage.
Summary and Recommendations
The prototype to analyze the customer status is one part of
the decision support system, because it presents to the manager the potential
situations that may occur. The result of
the research using actual data from the month of May 2003
consist of 168 customers in group 1
comparing to the forcasted value from the prototype of 89
customers in group 1, which will change to group 1
in the month of May 2003 with 198
customers. This account for nearly 85%,
which is at an acceptable level. The
deviation might result from the conditions used in the control is not
physically implemented. However from the
data it shows that there is more acceptance from the public. The public relations will have to use the
data of customers in the target group to
directly campaign to reach directly to customers. The present problem results because the
Wastewater Management Authority has handed over the tariff collection task to
Seansuk Municipality at the end of 2003 thus complete data is
unavailable for further comparison to the 3rd period.
Recommendations:
If the customer’s behaviors shows acceptance of the product, they will be willing to pay for
the service. Thus public campaign is the
basis for the success of the wastewater tariff collection. The data used in the
analysis should pass through various stages to be used as the index to
correctly forecast the future. The development of the prototype still needs improvement
to allow continuous calculation
with time. Thus those who will
use the prototype will need to make further improvement.
By :Mr. Suppamit Yuvatana
suppamitmr@yahoo.com
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